Araştırma

Q1 2022 Macroeconomic and Real Estate Market Figures of Turkey

JLL Turkey’s Q1 2022 research report, including macroeconomic & commercial real estate market figures, is published.

09 Mayıs 2022
Contributors:
  • Rabia Kurban

Macroeconomic Indicators

Following 1.8% yoy growth during the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020, Turkish economy expanded by 11% yoy in 2021, the strongest pace among major economies. The main drivers of that expansion recorded were household consumption and exports.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the surge in energy and food prices, disruption in food supply and expected loss of Ukrainian and Russian tourists, are anticipated to put pressure on the growth in the upcoming periods. Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) was recorded at 49.4, below the 50.0 no-change level for the first time in ten months as of March 2022. Meanwhile, both Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) were continued their upward trend in Q1 2021 and recorded at 61.14% yoy and 114.97% yoy as of March 2022, respectively. CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0% on Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting held on April 2022. 
After a stagnant period in 2020, FDI inflows to Turkey gained momentum and recorded a robust recovery by exceeding the last five years’ levels as of 2021 year-end, a rise of 78.8% compared to the same period in 2020. For the first two months of 2022, FDI inflows to Turkey was decreased by 19% and accounted at 1.26 billion USD.

Retail Market Overview

The existing shopping centre supply in Turkey remained stable at the level of 14 million sq m in 453 centres as of Q1 2022. Istanbul hosts the majority of the supply with a share of 37% and was followed by Ankara and Izmir with the shares of 12% and 6%, respectively.
Currently, there is approximately 0.9 million sq m GLA in 30 centres under construction, adding up to circa 14.9 million sq m supply by the end of 2024.
In line with this, the retail density in Turkey, which was recorded at 163 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants in the same quarter of the previous year, increased to 165 sq m as of Q1 2022 and expected to reach 170 sq m by the completion of under construction projects in 2024.
As of Q1 2022, shopping centre prime rent was remained stable at 70 per sq m/month on EUR basis. On the other hand, it was increased to 1.000 per sq m/month on Turkish Lira basis by recording a rise of 54% yoy and 11% qoq, respectively. Meantime, shopping centre prime yield was decreased by 25 bps and observed at the level of 8.50% as of Q1 2022.

Office Market Overview

While the existing Grade A office supply in Istanbul recorded at 5.8 million sq m GLA as of Q1 2022, there is circa 1.45 million sq m office supply under construction and it is expected that the total grade A office supply will reach 7.3 million sq m GLA by the end of 2023. 90% of under construction office projects comprises of Istanbul International Financial Centre, planned to complete in the end of 2022 and expected to provide more than 1 million sq m office space. 
Atasehir on the Asian Side and Levent in the Central Business District (CBD) have become prominent in terms of take-up transactions as of Q1 2022. Computing & technology, finance and logistics were the most active companies in terms of leasing transactions during Q1 2022. 
Meanwhile, vacancy rate in CBD region was decreased to 16.3% in Q1 2022, down from 18.0% in the last quarter of 2021. The availablity in prime office buildings became quite limited as of Q1 2022.
Prime office rent recorded at 25 USD per sq m/month by increasing 25% qoq as of Q1 2022. Meantime, TRY based prime office rent was increased by 90% yoy and recorded at 350 TRY per sq m/month.
It is estimated that prime yield was decreased by 25 bps and recorded at the level of 8.00% for the prime office assets as of Q1 2022.

Logistics Market Overview

As of Q1 2022, total existing logistics supply in the Marmara region, including the Istanbul and Kocaeli sub-markets, was recorded at 10.56 million sq m. There is 6.78 million sq m non-owner occupied logistics supply, which was constructed for lease and/or sale purposes. While the under-construction warehouse project supply was limited at 554 k sq m, the pipeline projects was recorded at the level of 2.23 million sq m as of Q1 2022.
According to the available data, 8,340 sq m logistics leasing transaction was realized in Q1 2022. As a result of lack of available qualified warehouse building supply, the leasing transactions were limited. Meanwhile, the expected acceleration in much needed logistics warehouse developments have not been observed yet in the market.
In accordance with this, one of the major issues of the logistics market were the qualified supply that could not meet the high leasing demand which is mainly driven by e-commerce and retail sector tenants.
Prime rent of logistics buildings were realized at 6 USD per sq m/month by increasing 20% yoy as of Q1 2022. Meantime, prime logistics warehouse rent on Turkish Lira basis was increased to 75 TRY per sq m/month recording a rise of 88% yoy. The ongoing high demand for premium buildings continues to give signals of further upward pressure on rental levels for the upcoming periods. Meanwhile, prime yield of logistics buildings stood at 8.75% as of Q1 2022.

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